Output used to produce Table 2.
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fSURVIV - Survival Rate Estimation with User Specified Cell Probabilities
13-Oct-98 15:59:04 Version 1.4(OS/2) June, 1991 Page 001
PROC TITLE 'mp data, sexes combined, 1st half(1-7), pers
1-11 (fwd1half)';
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.00
PROC MODEL NPAR=32 NYRS=11;
COHORT=0;10: 00000000001;
6: 00000000010;
2: 00000000011;
8: 00000000100;
1: 00000000110;
23: 00000001000;
1: 00000001001;
11: 00000001100;
4: 00000001110;
2: 00000001111;
11: 00000010000;
1: 00000010001;
1: 00000010100;
6: 00000011000;
1: 00000011010;
1: 00000011100;
1: 00000011101;
2: 00000011110;
24: 00000100000;
2: 00000101000;
2: 00000110000;
1: 00000110100;
10: 00000111000;
1: 00000111010;
7: 00000111100;
13: 00001000000;
1: 00001010000;
4: 00001100000;
1: 00001111000;
2: 00001111100;
1: 00001111111;
12: 00010000000;
1: 00010111100;
7: 00011000000;
1: 00011110000;
2: 00011111000;
1: 00011111110;
16: 00100000000;
5: 00110000000;
15: 01000000000;
1: 01010000000;
2: 01111000000;
1: 01111100000;
11: 10000000000;
1: 10000111100;
1: 10001000000;
2: 10010000000;
3: 10100000000;
2: 10111000000;
13: 11000000000;
1: 11010000000;
1: 11011111000;
2: 11100000000;
PROC ESTIMATE NAME=MODA1 NOVAR NSIG=9 MAXFN=32000;
Number of parameters in model = 32
Number of parameters set equal = 0
Number of parameters fixed = 3
Number of parameters estimated = 29
Final function value 962.71012 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 6
Number of function evaluations 2132
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model MODA1
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
Results for model MODA1
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 phi(1) 1.00000 0.290932 0.429773 1.57023
2 2 phi(2) 0.566071 0.262339 0.518879E-01 1.08025
3 3 phi(3) 0.366856 0.190532 -.658578E-02 0.740299
4 4 phi(4) 0.538462 0.265233 0.186041E-01 1.05832
5 5 phi(5) 0.393815 0.128679 0.141604 0.646026
6 6 phi(6) 0.550696 0.747614E-01 0.404164 0.697229
7 7 phi(7) 0.797944 0.855979E-01 0.630172 0.965716
8 8 phi(8) 0.575305 0.150714 0.279905 0.870704
9 9 phi(9) 0.426667 0.281604 -.125278 0.978611
10 -30 phi(10) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
11 -31 p(1) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
12 12 p(2) 0.459459 0.173947 0.118524 0.800395
13 13 p(3) 0.315457 0.186290 -.496710E-01 0.680586
14 14 p(4) 0.775862 0.420801 -.489073E-01 1.60063
15 15 p(5) 0.771429 0.483315 -.175868 1.71873
16 16 p(6) 0.896211 0.266528 0.373816 1.41861
17 17 p(7) 0.924000 0.827400E-01 0.761830 1.08617
18 18 p(8) 0.860465 0.984855E-01 0.667434 1.05350
19 19 p(9) 0.705882 0.211744 0.290864 1.12090
20 20 p(10) 0.507813 0.361236 -.200209 1.21583
21 21 p(11) 0.238095 0.121107 0.724874E-03 0.475466
22 22 gam(2) 0.472222 0.932749E-01 0.289403 0.655041
23 23 gam(3) 0.451342 0.169460 0.119200 0.783484
24 24 gam(4) 0.717195 0.297590 0.133918 1.30047
25 25 gam(5) 0.522000 0.226003 0.790334E-01 0.964967
26 26 gam(6) 0.290487 0.151758 -.695846E-02 0.587932
27 27 gam(7) 0.627538 0.166426 0.301343 0.953732
28 28 gam(8) 0.516529 0.660878E-01 0.386997 0.646061
29 29 gam(9) 0.860000 0.844851E-01 0.694409 1.02559
30 10 gam(10) 0.657738 0.142010 0.379398 0.936078
31 11 gam(11) 0.547009 0.246056 0.647385E-01 1.02928
32 -32 1:GAM 2:LAM 3:F 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
@@ 1 130 0 24 123.855 -4 49.7309 -136.244 330.487
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 24) 123.855
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -136.24367 Akaike Information Criterion = 330.48733
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 82.53
PROC ESTIMATE NAME=MODA2 NOVAR NSIG=9 MAXFN=32001;
Number of parameters in model = 32
Number of parameters set equal = 0
Number of parameters fixed = 3
Number of parameters estimated = 29
Final function value 962.71012 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 5
Number of function evaluations 2351
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model MODA2
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
Results for model MODA2
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 phi(1) 1.00000 0.290960 0.429719 1.57028
2 2 phi(2) 0.566071 0.262361 0.518442E-01 1.08030
3 3 phi(3) 0.366856 0.190546 -.661458E-02 0.740327
4 4 phi(4) 0.538462 0.265252 0.185682E-01 1.05835
5 5 phi(5) 0.393815 0.128687 0.141589 0.646041
6 6 phi(6) 0.550696 0.747650E-01 0.404157 0.697236
7 7 phi(7) 0.797944 0.856016E-01 0.630165 0.965723
8 8 phi(8) 0.575305 0.150718 0.279898 0.870712
9 9 phi(9) 0.426667 0.281608 -.125285 0.978619
10 -30 phi(10) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
11 -31 p(1) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
12 12 p(2) 0.459459 0.173947 0.118524 0.800395
13 13 p(3) 0.315457 0.186290 -.496710E-01 0.680586
14 14 p(4) 0.775862 0.420801 -.489073E-01 1.60063
15 15 p(5) 0.771429 0.483315 -.175868 1.71873
16 16 p(6) 0.896211 0.266528 0.373816 1.41861
17 17 p(7) 0.924000 0.827400E-01 0.761830 1.08617
18 18 p(8) 0.860465 0.984855E-01 0.667434 1.05350
19 19 p(9) 0.705882 0.211744 0.290864 1.12090
20 20 p(10) 0.507812 0.361236 -.200209 1.21583
21 21 p(11) 0.238095 0.121107 0.724872E-03 0.475466
22 22 gam(2) 2.11765 0.704868 0.736106 3.49919
23 23 gam(3) 1.25420 0.735300 -.186992 2.69538
24 24 gam(4) 0.511516 0.360102 -.194284 1.21732
25 25 gam(5) 1.03154 0.766675 -.471148 2.53422
26 26 gam(6) 1.35571 0.832499 -.275990 2.98741
27 27 gam(7) 0.877551 0.249025 0.389462 1.36564
28 28 gam(8) 1.54482 0.238198 1.07795 2.01169
29 29 gam(9) 0.668959 0.185403 0.305569 1.03235
30 10 gam(10) 0.648688 0.471565 -.275579 1.57295
31 11 gam(11) 1.82812 0.822401 0.216220 3.44003
32 -32 1:GAM 2:LAM 3:F 2.00000 0.000000E+00 2.00000 2.00000
@@ 2 130 0 24 123.855 -4 49.7309 -136.244 330.487
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 24) 123.855
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -136.24367 Akaike Information Criterion = 330.48733
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 90.72
proc test;
Modified AIC calculations: (see "Model Selection and Inference:
A Practical Information Theoretic Approach" by K. P. Burnham
and David R. Anderson, 1998)
Most General Model:MODA1
n= 262 c= 5.160625926298579
Model K AIC AICc QAIC QAICc
1 29 330.487 337.987 110.801 118.301
2 29 330.487 337.987 110.801 118.301
Log-
Submodel likelihood NDF AIC G-O-F AICC QAIC QAICC
--------- ---------- --- --------- ------ ------- ------- -------
2 MODA2 -136.2 24 330.49 0.0000 338.0 110.8 118.3
1 MODA1 -136.2 24 330.49 0.0000 338.0 110.8 118.3
Likelihood Ratio Tests Between Models
General Reduced Degrees Pr(Larger
Submodel Submodel Chi-square Freedom Chi-square)
---------- ---------- ---------- ------- -----------
* * WARNING * * Sequence of models reinitialized to zero.
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.00
proc stop;
CPU time in minutes for this job was 2.89
E X E C U T I O N S U C C E S S F U L