Output used to produce Table 2.
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MSSURVIV - Survival Rate Estimation with User Specified Cell Probabilities
29-Sep-98 14:16:31 Ver 2.0 01/01/98 Page 001
PROC TITLE 'MP data (4A), sexes combined, pers 1-11,
REVERSE ORDER';
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was14144.08
PROC MODEL NPAR=0060 ADDCELL NAGE=1 NYRS=11 STRATA=2
NGROUPS=1 PHIMISS=-1;
COHORT=18;5:;2:;0:;0:;1:;0:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=12;0:;4:;1:;0:;0:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=21;11:;1:;2:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=15;3:;4:;0:;2:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=45;34:;0:;2:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=31;0:;25:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=83;40:;3:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=59;1:;28:;0:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=58;33:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=48;2:;30:;0:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=64;14:;4:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;1:;0:;
COHORT=60;2:;26:;1:;4:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=40;17:;0:;0:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=55;3:;12:;0:;1:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=39;10:;0:;3:;0:;2:;0:;
COHORT=27;1:;4:;3:;3:;0:;0:;
COHORT=31;5:;0:;5:;0:;
COHORT=18;0:;7:;1:;2:;
COHORT=36;17:;0:;
COHORT=20;2:;6:;
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=S(G)P(G);
Number of parameters in model = 60
Number of parameters set equal = 54
Number of parameters fixed = 0
Number of parameters estimated = 6
Final function value 800.60901 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 7
Number of function evaluations 245
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL S(G)P(G)
@@ 1 0 0 214 218.543 29 98.0182 -188.093 388.186
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 214) 218.543
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.4042
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 29 Pearson Chi-square = 98.018
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -188.09298 Akaike Information Criterion = 388.18596
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL S(G)P(G)
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 PHI(01,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
2 2 PHI(01,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
3 3 PHI(01,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
4 4 PHI(01,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
5 1 PHI(02,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
6 2 PHI(02,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
7 3 PHI(02,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
8 4 PHI(02,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
9 1 PHI(03,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
10 2 PHI(03,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
11 3 PHI(03,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
12 4 PHI(03,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
13 1 PHI(04,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
14 2 PHI(04,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
15 3 PHI(04,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
16 4 PHI(04,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
17 1 PHI(05,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
18 2 PHI(05,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
19 3 PHI(05,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
20 4 PHI(05,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
21 1 PHI(06,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
22 2 PHI(06,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
23 3 PHI(06,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
24 4 PHI(06,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
25 1 PHI(07,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
26 2 PHI(07,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
27 3 PHI(07,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
28 4 PHI(07,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
29 1 PHI(08,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
30 2 PHI(08,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
31 3 PHI(08,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
32 4 PHI(08,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
33 1 PHI(09,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
34 2 PHI(09,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
35 3 PHI(09,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
36 4 PHI(09,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
37 1 PHI(10,A, ) 11 0.541968 0.246504E-01 0.493653 0.590283
38 2 PHI(10,A, ) 12 0.273337E-01 0.783789E-02 0.119714E-01 0.426959E-01
39 3 PHI(10,A, ) 21 0.606608E-01 0.133293E-01 0.345354E-01 0.867863E-01
40 4 PHI(10,A, ) 22 0.520225 0.275234E-01 0.466279 0.574170
41 5 p(02,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
42 6 p(02,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
43 5 p(03,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
44 6 p(03,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
45 5 p(04,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
46 6 p(04,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
47 5 p(05,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
48 6 p(05,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
49 5 p(06,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
50 6 p(06,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
51 5 p(07,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
52 6 p(07,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
53 5 p(08,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
54 6 p(08,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
55 5 p(09,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
56 6 p(09,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
57 5 p(10,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
58 6 p(10,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
59 5 p(11,A, ) 1 0.768954 0.363900E-01 0.697630 0.840279
60 6 p(11,A, ) 2 0.815975 0.392029E-01 0.739137 0.892813
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was14144.26
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=S(G)P(GT);
Number of parameters in model = 60
Number of parameters set equal = 36
Number of parameters fixed = 0
Number of parameters estimated = 24
Final function value 751.60563 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 3
Number of function evaluations 1513
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model S(G)P(GT)
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL S(G)P(GT)
@@ 2 130 0 196 120.536 13 42.6539 -139.090 326.179
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 196) 120.536
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 1.0000
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 13 Pearson Chi-square = 42.654
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0001
Log-likelihood = -139.08960 Akaike Information Criterion = 326.17920
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL S(G)P(GT)
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 PHI(01,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
2 2 PHI(01,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
3 3 PHI(01,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
4 4 PHI(01,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
5 1 PHI(02,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
6 2 PHI(02,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
7 3 PHI(02,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
8 4 PHI(02,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
9 1 PHI(03,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
10 2 PHI(03,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
11 3 PHI(03,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
12 4 PHI(03,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
13 1 PHI(04,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
14 2 PHI(04,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
15 3 PHI(04,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
16 4 PHI(04,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
17 1 PHI(05,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
18 2 PHI(05,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
19 3 PHI(05,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
20 4 PHI(05,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
21 1 PHI(06,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
22 2 PHI(06,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
23 3 PHI(06,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
24 4 PHI(06,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
25 1 PHI(07,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
26 2 PHI(07,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
27 3 PHI(07,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
28 4 PHI(07,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
29 1 PHI(08,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
30 2 PHI(08,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
31 3 PHI(08,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
32 4 PHI(08,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
33 1 PHI(09,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
34 2 PHI(09,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
35 3 PHI(09,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
36 4 PHI(09,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
37 1 PHI(10,A, ) 11 0.549995 0.264742E-01 0.498105 0.601884
38 2 PHI(10,A, ) 12 0.307255E-01 0.881577E-02 0.134466E-01 0.480045E-01
39 3 PHI(10,A, ) 21 0.599729E-01 0.132231E-01 0.340556E-01 0.858903E-01
40 4 PHI(10,A, ) 22 0.561832 0.303811E-01 0.502285 0.621379
41 5 p(02,A, ) 1 0.501782 0.172396 0.163886 0.839678
42 6 p(02,A, ) 2 0.709038 0.207518 0.302303 1.11577
43 7 p(03,A, ) 1 0.740395 0.136799 0.472270 1.00852
44 8 p(03,A, ) 2 0.518392 0.171887 0.181492 0.855291
45 9 p(04,A, ) 1 0.912971 0.664285E-01 0.782771 1.04317
46 10 p(04,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.705281E-02 0.986176 1.01382
47 11 p(05,A, ) 1 0.956568 0.383677E-01 0.881368 1.03177
48 12 p(05,A, ) 2 0.936541 0.526401E-01 0.833367 1.03972
49 13 p(06,A, ) 1 1.00000 0.485940E-02 0.990476 1.00952
50 14 p(06,A, ) 2 0.954384 0.507444E-01 0.854925 1.05384
51 15 p(07,A, ) 1 0.527614 0.924174E-01 0.346476 0.708752
52 16 p(07,A, ) 2 0.778646 0.929992E-01 0.596368 0.960925
53 17 p(08,A, ) 1 0.726637 0.103522 0.523735 0.929539
54 18 p(08,A, ) 2 0.496553 0.977885E-01 0.304888 0.688219
55 19 p(09,A, ) 1 0.373214 0.101126 0.175006 0.571421
56 20 p(09,A, ) 2 0.262310 0.927393E-01 0.805411E-01 0.444079
57 21 p(10,A, ) 1 0.371577 0.100816 0.173977 0.569176
58 22 p(10,A, ) 2 0.511973 0.135609 0.246180 0.777766
59 23 p(11,A, ) 1 0.855627 0.144438 0.572528 1.13873
60 24 p(11,A, ) 2 0.463207 0.150503 0.168221 0.758194
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was********
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=S(G)P(G);
Number of parameters in model = 60
Number of parameters set equal = 46
Number of parameters fixed = 0
Number of parameters estimated = 14
Final function value 767.35861 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 5
Number of function evaluations 717
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model S(G)P(G)
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL S(G)P(G)
@@ 3 130 0 206 132.153 24 51.5112 -154.843 337.685
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 206) 132.153
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 1.0000
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 24 Pearson Chi-square = 51.511
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0009
Log-likelihood = -154.84258 Akaike Information Criterion = 337.68517
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL S(G)P(G)
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 PHI(01,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
2 2 PHI(01,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
3 3 PHI(01,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
4 4 PHI(01,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
5 1 PHI(02,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
6 2 PHI(02,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
7 3 PHI(02,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
8 4 PHI(02,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
9 1 PHI(03,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
10 2 PHI(03,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
11 3 PHI(03,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
12 4 PHI(03,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
13 1 PHI(04,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
14 2 PHI(04,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
15 3 PHI(04,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
16 4 PHI(04,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
17 1 PHI(05,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
18 2 PHI(05,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
19 3 PHI(05,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
20 4 PHI(05,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
21 1 PHI(06,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
22 2 PHI(06,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
23 3 PHI(06,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
24 4 PHI(06,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
25 1 PHI(07,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
26 2 PHI(07,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
27 3 PHI(07,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
28 4 PHI(07,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
29 1 PHI(08,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
30 2 PHI(08,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
31 3 PHI(08,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
32 4 PHI(08,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
33 1 PHI(09,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
34 2 PHI(09,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
35 3 PHI(09,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
36 4 PHI(09,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
37 1 PHI(10,A, ) 11 0.557034 0.254490E-01 0.507154 0.606914
38 2 PHI(10,A, ) 12 0.290379E-01 0.828712E-02 0.127952E-01 0.452807E-01
39 3 PHI(10,A, ) 21 0.622481E-01 0.134254E-01 0.359344E-01 0.885619E-01
40 4 PHI(10,A, ) 22 0.543309 0.279072E-01 0.488611 0.598008
41 5 p(02,A, ) 1 0.600128 0.132313 0.340794 0.859462
42 5 p(02,A, ) 2 0.600128 0.132313 0.340794 0.859462
43 6 p(03,A, ) 1 0.672634 0.106632 0.463635 0.881633
44 6 p(03,A, ) 2 0.672634 0.106632 0.463635 0.881633
45 7 p(04,A, ) 1 0.948293 0.399354E-01 0.870019 1.02657
46 7 p(04,A, ) 2 0.948293 0.399354E-01 0.870019 1.02657
47 8 p(05,A, ) 1 0.949272 0.299515E-01 0.890567 1.00798
48 8 p(05,A, ) 2 0.949272 0.299515E-01 0.890567 1.00798
49 9 p(06,A, ) 1 1.00000 0.360060E-06 0.999999 1.00000
50 9 p(06,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.360060E-06 0.999999 1.00000
51 10 p(07,A, ) 1 0.682114 0.655322E-01 0.553671 0.810557
52 10 p(07,A, ) 2 0.682114 0.655322E-01 0.553671 0.810557
53 11 p(08,A, ) 1 0.624664 0.715024E-01 0.484520 0.764809
54 11 p(08,A, ) 2 0.624664 0.715024E-01 0.484520 0.764809
55 12 p(09,A, ) 1 0.332984 0.701285E-01 0.195532 0.470436
56 12 p(09,A, ) 2 0.332984 0.701285E-01 0.195532 0.470436
57 13 p(10,A, ) 1 0.435143 0.807994E-01 0.276776 0.593510
58 13 p(10,A, ) 2 0.435143 0.807994E-01 0.276776 0.593510
59 14 p(11,A, ) 1 0.728559 0.106613 0.519598 0.937520
60 14 p(11,A, ) 2 0.728559 0.106613 0.519598 0.937520
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was14143.72
PROC ESTIMATE NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=S(GT)P(t);
Number of parameters in model = 60
Number of parameters set equal = 9
Number of parameters fixed = 2
Number of parameters estimated = 49
Final function value 724.95356 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 4
Number of function evaluations 4996
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model S(GT)P(T)
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL S(GT)P(T)
@@ 4 130 0 171 47.3433 -13 4.26599 -112.438 322.875
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 171) 47.343
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 1.0000
Log-likelihood = -112.43753 Akaike Information Criterion = 322.87506
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL S(GT)P(T)
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 PHI(01,A, ) 11 0.429043 0.138688 0.157215 0.700871
2 2 PHI(01,A, ) 12 0.144531 0.992902E-01 -.500775E-01 0.339140
3 3 PHI(01,A, ) 21 0.424835E-17 0.747146E-09 -.146441E-08 0.146441E-08
4 4 PHI(01,A, ) 22 0.585020 0.177113 0.237879 0.932161
5 5 PHI(02,A, ) 11 0.664028 0.113249 0.442061 0.885996
6 6 PHI(02,A, ) 12 0.448018E-01 0.460233E-01 -.454038E-01 0.135007
7 7 PHI(02,A, ) 21 0.241468 0.108015 0.297582E-01 0.453178
8 8 PHI(02,A, ) 22 0.399055 0.125554 0.152970 0.645141
9 9 PHI(03,A, ) 11 0.827058 0.649509E-01 0.699755 0.954362
10 10 PHI(03,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.320582E-09 -.628340E-09 0.628340E-09
11 11 PHI(03,A, ) 21 0.424835E-17 0.386246E-09 -.757042E-09 0.757042E-09
12 12 PHI(03,A, ) 22 0.846527 0.757395E-01 0.698078 0.994976
13 13 PHI(04,A, ) 11 0.511033 0.559149E-01 0.401440 0.620626
14 14 PHI(04,A, ) 12 0.347718E-01 0.199759E-01 -.438094E-02 0.739246E-01
15 15 PHI(04,A, ) 21 0.170508E-01 0.168503E-01 -.159757E-01 0.500774E-01
16 16 PHI(04,A, ) 22 0.488069 0.656901E-01 0.359317 0.616822
17 17 PHI(05,A, ) 11 0.568746 0.648103E-01 0.441718 0.695774
18 18 PHI(05,A, ) 12 0.167455E-01 0.167774E-01 -.161382E-01 0.496292E-01
19 19 PHI(05,A, ) 21 0.414016E-01 0.285129E-01 -.144837E-01 0.972868E-01
20 20 PHI(05,A, ) 22 0.640128 0.690183E-01 0.504852 0.775404
21 21 PHI(06,A, ) 11 0.298868 0.688224E-01 0.163976 0.433760
22 22 PHI(06,A, ) 12 0.822804E-01 0.403060E-01 0.328071E-02 0.161280
23 23 PHI(06,A, ) 21 0.477815E-01 0.324426E-01 -.158060E-01 0.111369
24 24 PHI(06,A, ) 22 0.649005 0.101465 0.450133 0.847876
25 25 PHI(07,A, ) 11 0.490014 0.912762E-01 0.311113 0.668915
26 26 PHI(07,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.357052E-09 -.699822E-09 0.699822E-09
27 27 PHI(07,A, ) 21 0.596260E-01 0.331532E-01 -.535421E-02 0.124606
28 28 PHI(07,A, ) 22 0.273794 0.643444E-01 0.147679 0.399909
29 29 PHI(08,A, ) 11 0.622394 0.166013 0.297009 0.947779
30 30 PHI(08,A, ) 12 0.355347E-01 0.353975E-01 -.338445E-01 0.104914
31 31 PHI(08,A, ) 21 0.231664 0.119368 -.229748E-02 0.465625
32 32 PHI(08,A, ) 22 0.385494 0.131569 0.127618 0.643370
33 33 PHI(09,A, ) 11 0.485920 0.125551 0.239841 0.732000
34 34 PHI(09,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.523891E-09 -.102683E-08 0.102683E-08
35 35 PHI(09,A, ) 21 0.424835E-17 0.720846E-09 -.141286E-08 0.141286E-08
36 36 PHI(09,A, ) 22 0.794458 0.208089 0.386605 1.20231
37 37 PHI(10,A, ) 11 0.485705 0.816160E-01 0.325738 0.645672
38 38 PHI(10,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.322837E-09 -.632760E-09 0.632760E-09
39 39 PHI(10,A, ) 21 0.103067 0.582211E-01 -.110466E-01 0.217180
40 40 PHI(10,A, ) 22 0.267218 0.878505E-01 0.950309E-01 0.439405
41 41 p(02,A, ) 1 0.634204 0.138956 0.361849 0.906558
42 41 p(02,A, ) 2 0.634204 0.138956 0.361849 0.906558
43 42 p(03,A, ) 1 0.695819 0.937727E-01 0.512024 0.879613
44 42 p(03,A, ) 2 0.695819 0.937727E-01 0.512024 0.879613
45 43 p(04,A, ) 1 0.918610 0.445474E-01 0.831297 1.00592
46 43 p(04,A, ) 2 0.918610 0.445474E-01 0.831297 1.00592
47 44 p(05,A, ) 1 0.959099 0.282557E-01 0.903718 1.01448
48 44 p(05,A, ) 2 0.959099 0.282557E-01 0.903718 1.01448
49 45 p(06,A, ) 1 1.00000 0.550121E-06 0.999999 1.00000
50 45 p(06,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.550121E-06 0.999999 1.00000
51 46 p(07,A, ) 1 0.694857 0.912518E-01 0.516004 0.873711
52 46 p(07,A, ) 2 0.694857 0.912518E-01 0.516004 0.873711
53 47 p(08,A, ) 1 0.833102 0.859529E-01 0.664634 1.00157
54 47 p(08,A, ) 2 0.833102 0.859529E-01 0.664634 1.00157
55 48 p(09,A, ) 1 0.360086 0.964580E-01 0.171029 0.549144
56 48 p(09,A, ) 2 0.360086 0.964580E-01 0.171029 0.549144
57 49 p(10,A, ) 1 0.454217 0.998672E-01 0.258477 0.649957
58 49 p(10,A, ) 2 0.454217 0.998672E-01 0.258477 0.649957
59 -59 p(11,A, ) 1 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
60 -60 p(11,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=S(GT)P(GT);
Number of parameters in model = 60
Number of parameters set equal = 0
Number of parameters fixed = 2
Number of parameters estimated = 58
Final function value 721.74753 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 4
Number of function evaluations 5055
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model S(GT)P(GT)
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL S(GT)P(GT)
@@ 5 130 0 162 40.9312 -21 4.37369 -109.231 334.463
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 162) 40.931
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 1.0000
Log-likelihood = -109.23150 Akaike Information Criterion = 334.46300
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL S(GT)P(GT)
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 PHI(01,A, ) 11 0.423877 0.146847 0.136056 0.711698
2 2 PHI(01,A, ) 12 0.147494 0.106840 -.619121E-01 0.356901
3 3 PHI(01,A, ) 21 0.266820E-15 0.582492E-08 -.114168E-07 0.114168E-07
4 4 PHI(01,A, ) 22 0.590815 0.185681 0.226881 0.954750
5 5 PHI(02,A, ) 11 0.657208 0.112671 0.436372 0.878044
6 6 PHI(02,A, ) 12 0.461282E-01 0.474612E-01 -.468957E-01 0.139152
7 7 PHI(02,A, ) 21 0.238485 0.106184 0.303641E-01 0.446606
8 8 PHI(02,A, ) 22 0.407049 0.130999 0.150290 0.663807
9 9 PHI(03,A, ) 11 0.853182 0.710835E-01 0.713858 0.992505
10 10 PHI(03,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.307259E-09 -.602227E-09 0.602227E-09
11 11 PHI(03,A, ) 21 0.424835E-17 0.383295E-09 -.751258E-09 0.751258E-09
12 12 PHI(03,A, ) 22 0.806452 0.709583E-01 0.667373 0.945530
13 13 PHI(04,A, ) 11 0.503958 0.561965E-01 0.393813 0.614103
14 14 PHI(04,A, ) 12 0.344048E-01 0.196397E-01 -.408894E-02 0.728985E-01
15 15 PHI(04,A, ) 21 0.172264E-01 0.172282E-01 -.165409E-01 0.509936E-01
16 16 PHI(04,A, ) 22 0.498750 0.665706E-01 0.368271 0.629228
17 17 PHI(05,A, ) 11 0.569443 0.352384 -.121230 1.26012
18 18 PHI(05,A, ) 12 0.167637E-01 0.183564E-01 -.192149E-01 0.527422E-01
19 19 PHI(05,A, ) 21 0.413816E-01 0.423423E-01 -.416092E-01 0.124372
20 20 PHI(05,A, ) 22 0.639469 0.184896 0.277072 1.00187
21 21 PHI(06,A, ) 11 0.281349 0.680491E-01 0.147972 0.414725
22 22 PHI(06,A, ) 12 0.880402E-01 0.442583E-01 0.129392E-02 0.174786
23 23 PHI(06,A, ) 21 0.424905E-01 0.302419E-01 -.167836E-01 0.101765
24 24 PHI(06,A, ) 22 0.689680 0.129253 0.436343 0.943016
25 25 PHI(07,A, ) 11 0.508630 0.100656 0.311345 0.705916
26 26 PHI(07,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.351158E-09 -.688270E-09 0.688270E-09
27 27 PHI(07,A, ) 21 0.612143E-01 0.339650E-01 -.535700E-02 0.127786
28 28 PHI(07,A, ) 22 0.257953 0.675060E-01 0.125641 0.390264
29 29 PHI(08,A, ) 11 0.701014 0.215655 0.278331 1.12370
30 30 PHI(08,A, ) 12 0.302103E-01 0.302432E-01 -.290665E-01 0.894870E-01
31 31 PHI(08,A, ) 21 0.266906 0.142766 -.129161E-01 0.546728
32 32 PHI(08,A, ) 22 0.342616 0.120106 0.107209 0.578024
33 33 PHI(09,A, ) 11 0.473987 0.139529 0.200511 0.747463
34 34 PHI(09,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.477551E-09 -.936000E-09 0.936000E-09
35 35 PHI(09,A, ) 21 0.702898E-09 0.994587E-05 -.194932E-04 0.194946E-04
36 36 PHI(09,A, ) 22 0.749634 0.206940 0.344032 1.15524
37 37 PHI(10,A, ) 11 0.472222 0.832046E-01 0.309141 0.635303
38 38 PHI(10,A, ) 12 0.424835E-17 0.318786E-09 -.624820E-09 0.624820E-09
39 39 PHI(10,A, ) 21 0.110040 0.627561E-01 -.129620E-01 0.233042
40 40 PHI(10,A, ) 22 0.289960 0.966226E-01 0.100580 0.479340
41 41 p(02,A, ) 1 0.655326 0.220724 0.222707 1.08795
42 42 p(02,A, ) 2 0.615720 0.205461 0.213016 1.01842
43 43 p(03,A, ) 1 0.750000 0.106434 0.541390 0.958610
44 44 p(03,A, ) 2 0.573394 0.179932 0.220727 0.926062
45 45 p(04,A, ) 1 0.867342 0.700872E-01 0.729971 1.00471
46 46 p(04,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.630769E-10 1.00000 1.00000
47 47 p(05,A, ) 1 0.962867 0.376059E-01 0.889160 1.03657
48 48 p(05,A, ) 2 0.954535 0.456269E-01 0.865107 1.04396
49 49 p(06,A, ) 1 1.00000 0.739410 -.449243 2.44924
50 50 p(06,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.411942 0.192594 1.80741
51 51 p(07,A, ) 1 0.778371 0.143400 0.497307 1.05944
52 52 p(07,A, ) 2 0.638090 0.126184 0.390768 0.885411
53 53 p(08,A, ) 1 0.812685 0.125562 0.566583 1.05879
54 54 p(08,A, ) 2 0.861301 0.138752 0.589348 1.13325
55 55 p(09,A, ) 1 0.283590 0.106098 0.756384E-01 0.491542
56 56 p(09,A, ) 2 0.523341 0.187064 0.156696 0.889986
57 57 p(10,A, ) 1 0.394761 0.119628 0.160290 0.629232
58 58 p(10,A, ) 2 0.568505 0.177949 0.219725 0.917284
59 -59 p(11,A, ) 1 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
60 -60 p(11,A, ) 2 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was14143.75
PROC TEST;
Modified AIC calculations: (see "Model Selection and Inference:
A Practical Information Theoretic Approach" by K. P. Burnham
and David R. Anderson, 1998)
Most General Model:S(GT)P(GT)
n= 780 c= 1.00000000000000
Model K AIC AICc QAIC QAICc
1 6 388.186 388.295 388.186 388.295
2 24 326.179 327.769 326.179 327.769
3 14 337.685 338.234 337.685 338.234
4 49 322.875 329.587 322.875 329.587
5 58 334.463 343.955 334.463 343.955
Log-
Submodel likelihood NDF AIC G-O-F AICC QAIC QAICC
--------- ---------- --- --------- ------ ------- ------- -------
2 S(G)P(GT) -139.1 196 326.18 1.0000 327.8 326.2 327.8
4 S(GT)P(T) -112.4 171 322.88 1.0000 329.6 322.9 329.6
3 S(G)P(G) -154.8 206 337.69 1.0000 338.2 337.7 338.2
5 S(GT)P(GT) -109.2 162 334.46 1.0000 344.0 334.5 344.0
1 S(G)P(G) -188.1 214 388.19 0.4042 388.3 388.2 388.3
Likelihood Ratio Tests Between Models
General Reduced Degrees Pr(Larger
Submodel Submodel Chi-square Freedom Chi-square)
---------- ---------- ---------- ------- -----------
S(GT)P(T) S(G)P(GT) 53.304 25 0.0008
S(G)P(GT) S(G)P(G) 31.506 10 0.0005
S(GT)P(GT) S(G)P(GT) 59.716 34 0.0042
S(G)P(GT) S(G)P(G) 98.007 18 0.0000
S(GT)P(T) S(G)P(G) 84.810 35 0.0000
S(GT)P(GT) S(GT)P(T) 6.412 9 0.6981
S(GT)P(T) S(G)P(G) 151.311 43 0.0000
S(GT)P(GT) S(G)P(G) 91.222 44 0.0000
S(G)P(G) S(G)P(G) 66.501 8 0.0000
S(GT)P(GT) S(G)P(G) 157.723 52 0.0000
* * WARNING * * Sequence of models reinitialized to zero.
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was********
PROC STOP;
CPU time in minutes for this job was 0.07
E X E C U T I O N S U C C E S S F U L