Output used to produce Table 1.

Click here to go to relevent section.
==================================================
NOTE: TYPE = REVERSED CAP-HISTORY RECORDS
==================================================
 JOLLY (Ver:01/24/91)  'REVERSED Mp data, sexes combined,both halves (y=1-15), pers 1-11                 11/ 2/99  13:21        

 Number of sampling periods =    11
 Input format         = (9x,12i1)                                                             
 Max iterations       =    100
 Convergence criterion = 0.1000E-03

 Time period interval lengths = 
   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000   1.00000000
Data type:CAPTURE HISTORY (1)  - (9x,12i1)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

    456 Input records read


 Data summarized in "B-Table" format (See Leslie, Chitty and Chitty 1953; Biometrika 40:137-169).

 Time of !
    last !          Time of recapture
 capture !    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11
 -----------------------------------------------------------------
       1 !    0   11    2    2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0
       2 !    0    0   22    4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
       3 !    0    0    0   63    2    0    0    0    0    0    0
       4 !    0    0    0    0   73    3    0    0    0    0    0
       5 !    0    0    0    0    0   67    1    0    0    0    0
       6 !    0    0    0    0    0    0   46    6    0    0    1
       7 !    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   36    1    0    0
       8 !    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   18    9    3
       9 !    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   15    8
      10 !    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   29
      11 !    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0

 Marked  !    0   11   24   69   76   70   47   42   19   24   41
 Unmarked!   32   28   57   77   31   57   50   28   33   37   21
 Caught  !   32   39   81  146  107  127   97   70   52   61   62
 Released!   32   39   81  146  107  127   97   70   52   61   62

 Other summary stats:

 R(i)    !   16   26   65   76   68   53   37   30   23   29    0
 z(i)    !    0    5    7    3    3    1    7    2   13   12    0
 z'(i)   !  419  396  341  260  229  170  126   93   71   33    0

  JOLLY (Ver:01/24/91)  'REVERSED Mp data, sexes combined,both halves (y=1-15), pers 1-11                 11/ 2/99  13:21        


  -- Model A -- Jolly-Seber capture-recapture model with both death and immigration

 Div/0 Denotes estimates which cannot be computed due to poor data (EG R(I)=0). Means do not include these time periods.

        ==== Survival rate estimates between sampling periods ====  Interval    Survival rate estimates per unit time (PHI**(1/T(i))
 Period PHI  SE(PHI) SE'(PHI) 95% Conf. interval   COV(PHI(i,i-1))   Length     PHI  SE(PHI)  95% Conf. interval    COV(PHI(i,i-1))
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 0.5752 0.1093  0.0656     0.3611 - 0.7894                      1.0000  0.5752  0.1093    0.3611 -  0.7894
    2 0.7032 0.0812  0.0459     0.5440 - 0.8624     -.0020867778     1.0000  0.7032  0.0812    0.5440 -  0.8624     -0.0020867778
    3 0.8329 0.0494  0.0298     0.7361 - 0.9296     -.0004733818     1.0000  0.8329  0.0494    0.7361 -  0.9296     -0.0004733818
    4 0.5317 0.0428  0.0138     0.4479 - 0.6156     -.0002141209     1.0000  0.5317  0.0428    0.4479 -  0.6156     -0.0002141209
    5 0.6478 0.0491  0.0191     0.5516 - 0.7439     -.0001074309     1.0000  0.6478  0.0491    0.5516 -  0.7439     -0.0001074309

    6 0.5027 0.0637  0.0461     0.3779 - 0.6276     -.0001172677     1.0000  0.5027  0.0637    0.3779 -  0.6276     -0.0001172677
    7 0.4038 0.0548  0.0303     0.2964 - 0.5112     -.0009418452     1.0000  0.4038  0.0548    0.2964 -  0.5112     -0.0009418452
    8 0.6390 0.1168  0.1027     0.4100 - 0.8679     -.0004832948     1.0000  0.6390  0.1168    0.4100 -  0.8679     -0.0004832948
    9 0.5996 0.1089  0.0944     0.3861 - 0.8130     -.0055897174     1.0000  0.5996  0.1089    0.3861 -  0.8130     -0.0055897174
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN 0.6040 0.0216  0.0113     0.5617 - 0.6463                              0.6040  0.0216    0.5617 -  0.6463
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Period      M           SE'(M)          95% Conf. interval             N           SE(N)      SE'(N)           95% Conf. interval
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2       18.41         2.10         14.29 -       22.52             61.36        12.11       11.47        37.62 -          85.09
    3       32.70         1.54         29.68 -       35.71            107.25        11.19       10.25        85.31 -         129.18
    4       74.73         2.34         70.14 -       79.32            156.93         8.00        5.91       141.26 -         172.60
    5       80.70         1.68         77.41 -       83.98            113.18         7.42        2.80        98.64 -         127.73

    6       72.37         1.84         68.77 -       75.97            130.47         7.58        3.43       115.62 -         145.32
    7       65.05         5.89         53.50 -       76.60            132.82        15.38       13.87       102.68 -         162.95
    8       46.58         2.55         41.58 -       51.58             76.91         7.77        4.60        61.68 -          92.14
    9       47.71         7.50         33.02 -       62.40            126.43        26.98       26.35        73.54 -         179.31
   10       48.80         6.20         36.64 -       60.96            121.02        21.31       20.29        79.25 -         162.79

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN       54.12         1.38         51.41 -       56.82            114.04         5.58        4.46       103.10 -         124.98
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Period      p        SE(p)     95% Conf. interval         B          SE(B)          95% Conf. interval       COV(B(i),B(i-1))
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2     0.5976     0.1325      0.3378 - 0.8573         64.10        12.59         39.42 -       88.78                              
    3     0.7340     0.0846      0.5683 - 0.8997         67.61        10.32         47.38 -       87.83                -75.23        
    4     0.9234     0.0421      0.8408 - 1.0059         29.74         3.00         23.86 -       35.63                 -9.46        
    5     0.9418     0.0325      0.8781 - 1.0055         57.15         2.59         52.08 -       62.23                 -1.96        

    6     0.9672     0.0321      0.9044 - 1.0301         67.22         9.49         48.62 -       85.83                 -2.30        
    7     0.7225     0.0853      0.5554 - 0.8896         23.28         4.79         13.88 -       32.68                -33.22        
    8     0.9017     0.0653      0.7736 - 1.0297         77.28        21.43         35.28 -      119.29                 -4.35        
    9     0.3983     0.0940      0.2140 - 0.5825         45.22        18.97          8.04 -       82.40               -241.63        
   10     0.4918     0.0945      0.3065 - 0.6771                                                                                     

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN     0.7420     0.0301      0.4329 - 0.5507         53.95         3.12         47.84 -       60.07                              
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  JOLLY (Ver:01/24/91)  'REVERSED Mp data, sexes combined,both halves (y=1-15), pers 1-11                 11/ 2/99  13:21        


                                         Contingency table Goodness-of-fit test
                                         --------------------------------------

                    Component 1                                                       Component 2


                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   2                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !    6.00!   20.00!                Cap in i              !    0.00!    0.00!   11.00!
 Expected value                 !    7.33!   18.67!                Expected value        !    0.00!    0.00!   11.00!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !    5.00!    8.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    0.00!    0.00!    5.00!
 Expected value                 !    3.67!    9.33!                Expected value        !    0.00!    0.00!    5.00!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   1.0130 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.3142)  Chi-square =   0.0000 with  0 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=1.0000) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   3                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   21.00!   44.00!                Cap in i              !    2.00!    6.00!   16.00!
 Expected value                 !   19.26!   45.74!                Expected value        !    3.87!    4.65!   15.48!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !    3.00!   13.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    3.00!    0.00!    4.00!
 Expected value                 !    4.74!   11.26!                Expected value        !    1.13!    1.35!    4.52!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   1.1319 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.2874)  Chi-square =   0.2147 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.6431) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   4                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   36.00!   40.00!                Cap in i              !    6.00!   21.00!   42.00!
 Expected value                 !   35.92!   40.08!                Expected value        !    6.71!   20.12!   42.17!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !   33.00!   37.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    1.00!    0.00!    2.00!
 Expected value                 !   33.08!   36.92!                Expected value        !    0.29!    0.88!    1.83!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   0.0007 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=1.0000)  Chi-square =   0.0000 with  0 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=1.0000) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   5                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   55.00!   13.00!                Cap in i              !    3.00!   35.00!   38.00!
 Expected value                 !   48.30!   19.70!                Expected value        !    2.89!   34.63!   38.48!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !   21.00!   18.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    0.00!    1.00!    2.00!
 Expected value                 !   27.70!   11.30!                Expected value        !    0.11!    1.37!    1.52!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   8.8039 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.0030)  Chi-square =   0.0000 with  0 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=1.0000) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   6                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   27.00!   26.00!                Cap in i              !    3.00!   54.00!   13.00!
 Expected value                 !   29.21!   23.79!                Expected value        !    2.96!   54.23!   12.82!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !   43.00!   31.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    0.00!    1.00!    0.00!
 Expected value                 !   40.79!   33.21!                Expected value        !    0.04!    0.77!    0.18!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   0.6408 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.4234)  Chi-square =   0.0000 with  0 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=1.0000) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   7                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   17.00!   20.00!                Cap in i              !    1.00!   21.00!   25.00!
 Expected value                 !   17.93!   19.07!                Expected value        !    0.87!   23.50!   22.63!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !   30.00!   30.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    0.00!    6.00!    1.00!
 Expected value                 !   29.07!   30.93!                Expected value        !    0.13!    3.50!    3.37!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   0.1506 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.6980)  Chi-square =   3.6939 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.0546) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   8                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   17.00!   13.00!                Cap in i              !    6.00!   17.00!   19.00!
 Expected value                 !   18.00!   12.00!                Expected value        !    6.68!   16.23!   19.09!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !   25.00!   15.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    1.00!    0.00!    1.00!
 Expected value                 !   24.00!   16.00!                Expected value        !    0.32!    0.77!    0.91!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   0.2431 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.6220)  Chi-square =   0.0000 with  0 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=1.0000) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=   9                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   11.00!   12.00!                Cap in i              !    1.00!   11.00!    7.00!
 Expected value                 !    8.40!   14.60!                Expected value        !    1.19!   10.09!    7.72!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !    8.00!   21.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    1.00!    6.00!    6.00!
 Expected value                 !   10.60!   18.40!                Expected value        !    0.81!    6.91!    5.28!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   2.2661 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.1322)  Chi-square =   0.2775 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.5984) 

                                                                                        1st cap before i-1,!
 I=  10                           1st cap  1st cap                                        not cap    cap   ! 1st cap
                                 before i   in i                                           in i-1   in i-1 ! in i-1
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & recap     !   10.00!   19.00!                Cap in i              !    9.00!    7.00!    8.00!
 Expected value                 !   11.41!   17.59!                Expected value        !    8.67!    7.33!    8.00!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Cap in i, released & not recap !   14.00!   18.00!                Cap after, not in i   !    4.00!    4.00!    4.00!
 Expected value                 !   12.59!   19.41!                Expected value        !    4.33!    3.67!    4.00!
                                +--------+--------+                                      +--------+--------+--------+
 Chi-square =   0.5475 with  1 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.4594)  Chi-square =   0.0839 with  2 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.9589) 

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Chi-square =  14.7975 with  9 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.0966)  Chi-square =   4.2700 with  5 Degrees of freedom (Prob.=0.5112) 
                         Overall chi-square =  19.0675 with 14 degrees of freedom (Prob. =0.1624)
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 JOLLY (Ver:01/24/91)  'REVERSED Mp data, sexes combined,both halves (y=1-15), pers 1-11                 11/ 2/99  13:21        

 Model D - Constant survival rate per unit time, constant capture probability.

  Parameters: PHI = Estimate of survival rate
              p   = Capture probability 


  Definitions:
    THETA  = Vector of parameters
    1-X(i) = Probability that an animal alive just after period i is subsequently recaptured
    T(i)   = Time units between periods i and i+1


 Starting values of THETA :           0.6040      0.7420

 Final values after      3 iterations:


                                      Standard
 Parameter                 Variance    error        95% confidence interval   Covariance(P,PHI)
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      PHI     0.5834     0.00029851   0.0173            0.5495 -  0.6173          -0.00010339

      p       0.7933     0.00058564   0.0242            0.7459 -  0.8407
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                      Standard
 Period          M         Variance    error         95% confidence interval
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2          17.74         1.9588      1.40            14.99 -       20.48
    3          34.36         3.8963      1.97            30.50 -       38.23
    4          79.82         9.5745      3.09            73.75 -       85.88
    5          87.58        10.6002      3.26            81.19 -       93.96

    6          78.71         9.5226      3.09            72.66 -       84.76
    7          59.86         7.0283      2.65            54.67 -       65.06
    8          48.79         5.6601      2.38            44.12 -       53.45
    9          35.54         4.1380      2.03            31.55 -       39.52
   10          40.50         5.4607      2.34            35.92 -       45.08

   11          51.68        15.1247      3.89            44.06 -       59.31
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN          53.46        13.5797      3.69            46.23 -       60.68
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                      Standard
 Period          N         Variance    error         95% confidence interval
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2          53.03        12.7782      3.57            46.03 -       60.04
    3         106.22        29.3977      5.42            95.59 -      116.84
    4         176.88        49.8224      7.06           163.04 -      190.71
    5         126.65        25.0351      5.00           116.85 -      136.46

    6         150.56        37.8957      6.16           138.49 -      162.62
    7         122.89        30.4055      5.51           112.08 -      133.70
    8          84.08        17.5023      4.18            75.88 -       92.28
    9          77.13        17.9234      4.23            68.84 -       85.43
   10          87.14        21.5706      4.64            78.03 -       96.24

   11          78.15        24.7967      4.98            68.39 -       87.91
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN         106.27        79.2871      8.90            88.82 -      123.73
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                      Standard
 Period          B         Variance    error         95% confidence interval
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2          67.60        25.9874      5.10            57.60 -       77.59
    3          88.40        37.9528      6.16            76.32 -      100.47
    4          27.37        24.1634      4.92            17.74 -       37.01
    5          67.14        26.3046      5.13            57.09 -       77.19

    6          54.36        26.8018      5.18            44.22 -       64.51
    7          27.70        18.0093      4.24            19.38 -       36.01
    8          37.34        16.1280      4.02            29.47 -       45.21
    9          41.62        18.3684      4.29            33.22 -       50.02
   10          20.85        13.4063      3.66            13.67 -       28.02

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN          48.04        10.1568      3.19            41.80 -       54.29
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 JOLLY (Ver:01/24/91)  'REVERSED Mp data, sexes combined,both halves (y=1-15), pers 1-11                 11/ 2/99  13:21        

 Model B - Constant survival rate per unit time, time-specific capture probabilities.

  Parameters: PHI  = Survival rate per unit time
              p(i) = Capture probability in period i


 Starting value of PHI, p(i):
   0.5834   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933   0.7933
   0.7933

 ( 1)Convergence failure after      9 iterations
 THETA =  0.567881    0.595111    0.630058    -5.91358    -2.65322    -.608540    0.492724    0.514012    0.632707    0.570817    
 0.494398    
 THETA1 =  0.567881    0.595111    0.630058    -12.4029    -5.52639    -.785765    0.475762    0.505013    0.625805    0.571984    
 0.509380    

 Starting value of PHI, p(i):
   0.5834   0.5976   0.7340   0.9234   0.9418   0.9672   0.7225   0.9017   0.3983   0.4918
   0.7420

 Final values after      4 iterations:


                              Standard            95%
 Parameter Estimate  Variance   Error     Confidence interval      Covariance(p(i),PHI)              i     T(i)       PHI**T(i)
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  PHI      0.5977  0.00037875   0.0195     0.5596 -  0.6359

  p(   2)  0.5554  0.01529355   0.1237     0.3130 -  0.7978            -0.00007522                   1    1.0000      0.5977
  p(   3)  0.7164  0.00728132   0.0853     0.5492 -  0.8837            -0.00004582                   2    1.0000      0.5977
  p(   4)  0.9511  0.00074846   0.0274     0.8975 -  1.0047            -0.00000654                   3    1.0000      0.5977
  p(   5)  0.9267  0.00149689   0.0387     0.8509 -  1.0025            -0.00003945                   4    1.0000      0.5977
 
  p(   6)  0.9757  0.00056028   0.0237     0.9293 -  1.0221            -0.00001850                   5    1.0000      0.5977
  p(   7)  0.6873  0.00532468   0.0730     0.5443 -  0.8303            -0.00023720                   6    1.0000      0.5977
  p(   8)  0.6994  0.00816916   0.0904     0.5223 -  0.8766            -0.00047854                   7    1.0000      0.5977
  p(   9)  0.3693  0.00580497   0.0762     0.2200 -  0.5186            -0.00026889                   8    1.0000      0.5977
  p(  10)  0.4793  0.00691988   0.0832     0.3163 -  0.6423            -0.00035653                   9    1.0000      0.5977
 
  p(  11)  0.7878  0.01128391   0.1062     0.5795 -  0.9960            -0.00083613                  10    1.0000      0.5977
 ----------------------------------------------------------
  p(MEAN)  0.7148  0.00628831   0.0793     0.5594 -  0.8703
 ----------------------------------------------------------

                                      Standard
 Period          M         Variance    error         95% confidence interval
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2          20.26         5.7745      2.40            15.55 -       24.97
    3          35.13         5.6589      2.38            30.47 -       39.79
    4          73.51         2.2065      1.49            70.60 -       76.42
    5          81.45         4.0255      2.01            77.51 -       85.38

    6          71.87         1.5787      1.26            69.41 -       74.33
    7          64.32        16.1216      4.02            56.45 -       72.19
    8          54.00        18.9980      4.36            45.46 -       62.54
    9          49.81        28.6041      5.35            39.33 -       60.29
   10          49.69        24.2239      4.92            40.04 -       59.34

   11          52.05        34.8187      5.90            40.48 -       63.61
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN          55.21        29.2412      5.41            44.61 -       65.81
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                      Standard
 Period          N         Variance    error         95% confidence interval
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2          70.67       152.2729     12.34            46.49 -       94.86
    3         114.69       116.0890     10.77            93.57 -      135.81
    4         154.47        11.4633      3.39           147.83 -      161.11
    5         114.90         9.4463      3.07           108.87 -      120.92

    6         130.29         5.9595      2.44           125.50 -      135.07
    7         137.07       108.8400     10.43           116.62 -      157.52
    8          94.03        74.6652      8.64            77.10 -      110.97
    9         139.17       441.5456     21.01            97.98 -      180.35
   10         126.89       265.6604     16.30            94.94 -      158.83

   11          78.70        83.6215      9.14            60.78 -       96.63
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN         116.09       207.3382     14.40            87.87 -      144.31
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                      Standard
 Period          B         Variance    error         95% confidence interval
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2          66.16       181.5831     13.48            39.75 -       92.57
    3          67.47        58.3503      7.64            52.50 -       82.45
    4          31.09         8.9431      2.99            25.22 -       36.95
    5          56.95         5.6284      2.37            52.30 -       61.60

    6          71.90        93.7651      9.68            52.92 -       90.88
    7          26.43        72.4498      8.51             9.75 -       43.12
    8          82.16       486.6074     22.06            38.93 -      125.40
    9          43.51       412.7373     20.32             3.69 -       83.33
   10           2.63       109.9829     10.49           -17.92 -       23.19

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 MEAN          49.81        35.1108      5.93            38.20 -       61.43
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 JOLLY (Ver:01/24/91)  'REVERSED Mp data, sexes combined,both halves (y=1-15), pers 1-11                 11/ 2/99  13:21        

              Test of model D vs model A        Test of model B vs model A        Test of model D vs model B

  Per             T1               T2               T1               T2               T1               T2  
                -------          -------          -------          -------          -------          -------
     1           0.0886           0.0000           0.0996           0.0000           0.3760           0.0000
     2           3.0832           0.0000           3.0317           0.0186           0.0002           0.0000
     3          24.7840           8.0456          15.7183           0.2882           1.1377           4.8469
     4           0.0192           4.2287           2.1033           0.4141           1.6771           5.7012
     5           5.1216           5.0841           0.8963           0.0821           1.7708           4.2975
     6           6.0456           0.0000           3.6299           0.0000           0.3035           0.0000
     7           8.1487           3.7731           4.3309           0.7315           0.5950           1.4604
     8           2.6295           2.3336           0.5878           3.3490           5.6089           0.1877
     9           1.2131          25.1706           0.0182           0.0467           1.5253          28.5905
    10           0.0389          19.1008           0.0050           0.0042           0.0159          19.9721

 Total          51.1724          67.7364          30.4210           4.9345          13.0105          65.0563

     Total chi-square   =     118.9088     Total chi-square   =      35.3554     Total chi-square   =      78.0668
     Degrees of freedom =       15         Degrees of freedom =        7         Degrees of freedom =        7
     Probability        =       0.0000     Probability        =       0.0000     Probability        =       0.0000

 Likelihood-Ratio test of model A versus model 2:

   Hypothesis: Survival rate of newly captured animals =  survival rate of previously captured animals.

               Chi-square =    14.7975 with   9 degrees of freedom (Probability =   0.0966)

 Goodness-of-fit tests:

 Model   Chi-square     DF    Probability
 -----   ----------     --    -----------
   A       19.0675      14      0.1624

   2        0.0000       0      1.0000

   B       54.4230      21      0.0001

   D      137.9764      29      0.0000