Output used to produce Table 1.
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Dimension limitations for this run:
Maximum number of parameters 1256
Maximum number of cohorts 10
PROC TITLE 'mp data, sexes combined, both halves, pers 1-11
(fwdall)';
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.02
PROC MODEL NPAR=31 NYRS=11;
COHORT=0;16: 00000000001;
8: 00000000010;
5: 00000000011;
13: 00000000100;
1: 00000000101;
1: 00000000110;
1: 00000000111;
37: 00000001000;
2: 00000001001;
2: 00000001010;
17: 00000001100;
1: 00000001101;
8: 00000001110;
3: 00000001111;
18: 00000010000;
1: 00000010001;
1: 00000010100;
9: 00000011000;
1: 00000011010;
5: 00000011100;
3: 00000011110;
1: 00000011111;
31: 00000100000;
2: 00000101000;
1: 00000101100;
8: 00000110000;
1: 00000110100;
18: 00000111000;
1: 00000111010;
10: 00000111100;
2: 00000111110;
30: 00001000000;
18: 00001100000;
2: 00001110000;
4: 00001111000;
5: 00001111100;
1: 00001111111;
15: 00010000000;
1: 00010110000;
2: 00010111000;
1: 00010111100;
11: 00011000000;
1: 00011011100;
3: 00011100000;
1: 00011110000;
4: 00011111000;
1: 00011111110;
21: 00100000000;
5: 00110000000;
1: 00111000000;
2: 00111100000;
18: 01000000000;
2: 01010000000;
1: 01010100000;
1: 01010111100;
4: 01100000000;
1: 01101000000;
3: 01111000000;
2: 01111100000;
21: 10000000000;
1: 10000111100;
1: 10010000000;
1: 10011000000;
1: 10011111110;
4: 10100000000;
1: 10110000000;
3: 10111000000;
19: 11000000000;
3: 11010000000;
1: 11011110000;
1: 11011111000;
4: 11100000000;
1: 11110000000;
PROC ESTIMATE NAME=MODA1 NOVAR NSIG=9 MAXFN=32000;
Number of parameters in model = 31
Number of parameters set equal = 0
Number of parameters fixed = 2
Number of parameters estimated = 29
Final function value 1713.8734 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 6
Number of function evaluations 1999
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model MODA1
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
Results for model MODA1
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 phi(1) 0.959676 0.152633 0.660516 1.25884
2 2 phi(2) 0.640208 0.167905 0.311114 0.969302
3 3 phi(3) 0.380608 0.102075 0.180542 0.580674
4 4 phi(4) 0.701547 0.108906 0.488090 0.915004
5 5 phi(5) 0.491843 0.758848E-01 0.343108 0.640577
6 6 phi(6) 0.560681 0.502391E-01 0.462212 0.659149
7 7 phi(7) 0.740380 0.557520E-01 0.631106 0.849654
8 8 phi(8) 0.581728 0.829020E-01 0.419240 0.744216
9 9 phi(9) 0.417943 0.119961 0.182819 0.653066
10 -30 phi(10) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
11 -31 p(1) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
12 12 p(2) 0.487395 0.109914 0.271963 0.702828
13 13 p(3) 0.392633 0.127897 0.141954 0.643311
14 14 p(4) 0.900000 0.261112 0.388221 1.41178
15 15 p(5) 0.719190 0.151113 0.423009 1.01537
16 16 p(6) 0.966901 0.152706 0.667598 1.26620
17 17 p(7) 0.941519 0.475941E-01 0.848235 1.03480
18 18 p(8) 0.922914 0.620391E-01 0.801318 1.04451
19 19 p(9) 0.733427 0.110067 0.517696 0.949158
20 20 p(10) 0.594594 0.174778 0.252029 0.937159
21 21 p(11) 0.282051 0.833900E-01 0.118607 0.445496
22 22 gam(2) 0.475410 0.689210E-01 0.340324 0.610495
23 23 gam(3) 0.604996 0.119958 0.369878 0.840113
24 24 gam(4) 0.648097 0.143616 0.366609 0.929585
25 25 gam(5) 0.404561 0.104886 0.198985 0.610136
26 26 gam(6) 0.505048 0.901307E-01 0.328392 0.681704
27 27 gam(7) 0.648012 0.844681E-01 0.482454 0.813569
28 28 gam(8) 0.531885 0.455311E-01 0.442644 0.621126
29 29 gam(9) 0.833266 0.543313E-01 0.726776 0.939755
30 10 gam(10) 0.703722 0.871399E-01 0.532928 0.874516
31 11 gam(11) 0.578126 0.125743 0.331670 0.824582
Cohort Cell Observed Expected Chi-square Note
------ ---- -------- -------- ---------- -------------
1 1 16 16.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 2 8 9.333 0.190 0 < P < 1
1 3 5 3.667 0.485 0 < P < 1
1 4 13 11.259 0.269 0 < P < 1
1 5 1 0.765 0.072 0 < P < 1
1 6 1 2.855 1.205 0 < P < 1
1 7 1 1.121 0.013 0 < P < 1
1 8 37 36.918 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 9 2 0.519 4.229 0 < P < 1
1 10 2 1.937 0.002 0 < P < 1
1 11 17 21.017 0.768 0 < P < 1
1 12 1 1.427 0.128 0 < P < 1
1 13 8 5.329 1.339 0 < P < 1
1 14 3 2.093 0.393 0 < P < 1
1 15 18 11.299 3.974 0 < P < 1
1 16 1 0.016 58.639 0 < P < 1
1 17 1 0.668 0.165 0 < P < 1
1 18 9 14.055 1.818 0 < P < 1
1 19 1 0.737 0.094 0 < P < 1
1 20 5 8.001 1.126 0 < P < 1
1 21 3 2.029 0.465 0 < P < 1
1 22 1 0.797 0.052 0 < P < 1
1 23 31 33.213 0.147 0 < P < 1
1 24 2 0.874 1.449 0 < P < 1
1 25 1 0.498 0.507 0 < P < 1
1 26 8 11.318 0.973 0 < P < 1
1 27 1 0.669 0.163 0 < P < 1
1 28 18 14.078 1.093 0 < P < 1
1 29 1 0.739 0.093 0 < P < 1
1 30 10 8.014 0.492 0 < P < 1
1 31 2 2.032 0.001 0 < P < 1
1 32 30 30.928 0.028 0 < P < 1
1 33 18 12.807 2.106 0 < P < 1
1 34 2 4.364 1.281 0 < P < 1
1 35 4 5.428 0.376 0 < P < 1
1 36 5 3.090 1.180 0 < P < 1
1 37 1 0.308 1.557 0 < P < 1
1 38 15 16.000 0.062 0 < P < 1
1 39 1 0.573 0.318 0 < P < 1
1 40 2 0.713 2.324 0 < P < 1
1 41 1 0.406 0.870 0 < P < 1
1 42 11 10.403 0.034 0 < P < 1
1 43 1 0.036 26.140 0 < P < 1
1 44 3 4.308 0.397 0 < P < 1
1 45 1 1.468 0.149 0 < P < 1
1 46 4 1.826 2.589 0 < P < 1
1 47 1 0.264 2.058 0 < P < 1
1 48 21 18.404 0.366 0 < P < 1
1 49 5 3.974 0.265 0 < P < 1
1 50 1 2.584 0.971 0 < P < 1
1 51 2 1.070 0.809 0 < P < 1
1 52 18 19.410 0.102 0 < P < 1
1 53 2 1.705 0.051 0 < P < 1
1 54 1 0.179 3.759 0 < P < 1
1 55 1 0.043 21.167 0 < P < 1
1 56 4 5.105 0.239 0 < P < 1
1 57 1 0.080 10.639 0 < P < 1
1 58 3 0.717 7.276 0 < P < 1
1 59 2 0.297 9.777 0 < P < 1
1 60 21 21.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 61 1 0.005 216.350 0 < P < 1
1 62 1 1.625 0.240 0 < P < 1
1 63 1 1.057 0.003 0 < P < 1
1 64 1 0.027 35.389 0 < P < 1
1 65 4 4.865 0.154 0 < P < 1
1 66 1 1.050 0.002 0 < P < 1
1 67 3 0.683 7.860 0 < P < 1
1 68 19 17.590 0.113 0 < P < 1
1 69 3 1.545 1.370 0 < P < 1
1 70 1 0.142 5.196 0 < P < 1
1 71 1 0.176 3.848 0 < P < 1
1 72 4 4.626 0.085 0 < P < 1
1 73 1 0.999 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 74 0 25.849 25.849 0 < P < 1
1 Cohort df= 38 56.002 P = 0.0300
------------------------------------------------------------
@@ 1 130 0 44 138.716 9 56.0025 -176.270 410.539
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 44) 138.716
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 9 Pearson Chi-square = 56.002
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -176.26959 Akaike Information Criterion = 410.53918
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 292.31
PROC ESTIMATE NAME=MODA2 NOVAR NSIG=9 MAXFN=1 PARM=LAM;
Number of parameters in model = 31
Number of parameters set equal = 0
Number of parameters fixed = 2
Number of parameters estimated = 29
Final function value 1713.8734 (Error Return = 131)
Number of significant digits 10
Number of function evaluations 30
* * WARNING * * Number of function evaluations exceed MAXFN limit before
* * WARNING * * parameters estimated to NSIG digits for Model MODA2
Results for model MODA2
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 phi(1) 0.959676 0.152647 0.660488 1.25886
2 2 phi(2) 0.640208 0.167920 0.311085 0.969330
3 3 phi(3) 0.380608 0.102083 0.180527 0.580690
4 4 phi(4) 0.701547 0.108914 0.488075 0.915019
5 5 phi(5) 0.491843 0.758896E-01 0.343099 0.640586
6 6 phi(6) 0.560681 0.502416E-01 0.462207 0.659154
7 7 phi(7) 0.740380 0.557544E-01 0.631102 0.849659
8 8 phi(8) 0.581728 0.829042E-01 0.419236 0.744221
9 9 phi(9) 0.417943 0.119963 0.182816 0.653070
10 -30 phi(10) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
11 -31 p(1) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
12 12 p(2) 0.487395 0.109914 0.271963 0.702828
13 13 p(3) 0.392633 0.127897 0.141954 0.643311
14 14 p(4) 0.900000 0.261112 0.388222 1.41178
15 15 p(5) 0.719190 0.151113 0.423009 1.01537
16 16 p(6) 0.966901 0.152706 0.667598 1.26620
17 17 p(7) 0.941519 0.475942E-01 0.848235 1.03480
18 18 p(8) 0.922914 0.620391E-01 0.801318 1.04451
19 19 p(9) 0.733427 0.110067 0.517696 0.949158
20 20 p(10) 0.594594 0.174778 0.252029 0.937159
21 21 p(11) 0.282051 0.833900E-01 0.118607 0.445496
22 22 LAM(2) 2.01863 0.429634 1.17655 2.86071
23 23 LAM(3) 1.05820 0.362288 0.348116 1.76829
24 24 LAM(4) 0.587271 0.209246 0.177148 0.997393
25 25 LAM(5) 1.73409 0.560117 0.636264 2.83192
26 26 LAM(6) 0.973852 0.231736 0.519649 1.42806
27 27 LAM(7) 0.865232 0.125902 0.618465 1.11200
28 28 LAM(8) 1.39199 0.139567 1.11844 1.66554
29 29 LAM(9) 0.698130 0.107440 0.487547 0.908714
30 10 LAM(10) 0.593904 0.183431 0.234378 0.953429
31 11 LAM(11) 1.72973 0.376249 0.992278 2.46717
Cohort Cell Observed Expected Chi-square Note
------ ---- -------- -------- ---------- -------------
1 1 16 16.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 2 8 9.333 0.190 0 < P < 1
1 3 5 3.667 0.485 0 < P < 1
1 4 13 11.259 0.269 0 < P < 1
1 5 1 0.765 0.072 0 < P < 1
1 6 1 2.855 1.205 0 < P < 1
1 7 1 1.121 0.013 0 < P < 1
1 8 37 36.918 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 9 2 0.519 4.229 0 < P < 1
1 10 2 1.937 0.002 0 < P < 1
1 11 17 21.017 0.768 0 < P < 1
1 12 1 1.427 0.128 0 < P < 1
1 13 8 5.329 1.339 0 < P < 1
1 14 3 2.093 0.393 0 < P < 1
1 15 18 11.299 3.974 0 < P < 1
1 16 1 0.016 58.639 0 < P < 1
1 17 1 0.668 0.165 0 < P < 1
1 18 9 14.055 1.818 0 < P < 1
1 19 1 0.737 0.094 0 < P < 1
1 20 5 8.001 1.126 0 < P < 1
1 21 3 2.029 0.465 0 < P < 1
1 22 1 0.797 0.052 0 < P < 1
1 23 31 33.213 0.147 0 < P < 1
1 24 2 0.874 1.449 0 < P < 1
1 25 1 0.498 0.507 0 < P < 1
1 26 8 11.318 0.973 0 < P < 1
1 27 1 0.669 0.163 0 < P < 1
1 28 18 14.078 1.093 0 < P < 1
1 29 1 0.739 0.093 0 < P < 1
1 30 10 8.014 0.492 0 < P < 1
1 31 2 2.032 0.001 0 < P < 1
1 32 30 30.928 0.028 0 < P < 1
1 33 18 12.807 2.106 0 < P < 1
1 34 2 4.364 1.281 0 < P < 1
1 35 4 5.428 0.376 0 < P < 1
1 36 5 3.090 1.180 0 < P < 1
1 37 1 0.308 1.557 0 < P < 1
1 38 15 16.000 0.063 0 < P < 1
1 39 1 0.573 0.318 0 < P < 1
1 40 2 0.713 2.324 0 < P < 1
1 41 1 0.406 0.870 0 < P < 1
1 42 11 10.403 0.034 0 < P < 1
1 43 1 0.036 26.140 0 < P < 1
1 44 3 4.308 0.397 0 < P < 1
1 45 1 1.468 0.149 0 < P < 1
1 46 4 1.826 2.589 0 < P < 1
1 47 1 0.264 2.058 0 < P < 1
1 48 21 18.404 0.366 0 < P < 1
1 49 5 3.974 0.265 0 < P < 1
1 50 1 2.584 0.971 0 < P < 1
1 51 2 1.070 0.809 0 < P < 1
1 52 18 19.410 0.102 0 < P < 1
1 53 2 1.705 0.051 0 < P < 1
1 54 1 0.179 3.759 0 < P < 1
1 55 1 0.043 21.167 0 < P < 1
1 56 4 5.105 0.239 0 < P < 1
1 57 1 0.080 10.639 0 < P < 1
1 58 3 0.717 7.276 0 < P < 1
1 59 2 0.297 9.777 0 < P < 1
1 60 21 21.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 61 1 0.005 216.350 0 < P < 1
1 62 1 1.625 0.240 0 < P < 1
1 63 1 1.057 0.003 0 < P < 1
1 64 1 0.027 35.389 0 < P < 1
1 65 4 4.865 0.154 0 < P < 1
1 66 1 1.050 0.002 0 < P < 1
1 67 3 0.683 7.860 0 < P < 1
1 68 19 17.590 0.113 0 < P < 1
1 69 3 1.545 1.370 0 < P < 1
1 70 1 0.142 5.196 0 < P < 1
1 71 1 0.176 3.848 0 < P < 1
1 72 4 4.626 0.085 0 < P < 1
1 73 1 0.999 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 74 0 25.849 25.849 0 < P < 1
1 Cohort df= 38 56.002 P = 0.0300
------------------------------------------------------------
@@ 2 131 0 44 138.716 9 56.0024 -176.270 410.539
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 44) 138.716
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 9 Pearson Chi-square = 56.002
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -176.26959 Akaike Information Criterion = 410.53918
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 8.72
PROC ESTIMATE NAME=MODA2x NOVAR NSIG=9 MAXFN=32000 PARM=LAM;
Number of parameters in model = 31
Number of parameters set equal = 7
Number of parameters fixed = 2
Number of parameters estimated = 22
Final function value 1733.4715 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 6
Number of function evaluations 1098
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model MODA2X
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
Results for model MODA2X
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 phi(1) 0.907900 0.117632 0.677342 1.13846
2 2 phi(2) 0.613825 0.861506E-01 0.444970 0.782681
3 3 phi(3) 0.507561 0.750571E-01 0.360449 0.654672
4 4 phi(4) 0.590775 0.603159E-01 0.472556 0.708994
5 5 phi(5) 0.493492 0.488065E-01 0.397832 0.589153
6 6 phi(6) 0.613245 0.440031E-01 0.526999 0.699491
7 7 phi(7) 0.629858 0.446478E-01 0.542348 0.717368
8 8 phi(8) 0.769808 0.599967E-01 0.652215 0.887402
9 9 phi(9) 0.678977 0.975835E-01 0.487714 0.870241
10 -30 phi(10) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
11 -31 p(1) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
12 11 p(2) 0.528035 0.932956E-01 0.345175 0.710894
13 12 p(3) 0.447995 0.780374E-01 0.295042 0.600948
14 13 p(4) 0.637943 0.902491E-01 0.461055 0.814831
15 14 p(5) 0.778355 0.803575E-01 0.620854 0.935856
16 15 p(6) 0.975373 0.759072E-01 0.826595 1.12415
17 16 p(7) 0.881619 0.552564E-01 0.773316 0.989921
18 17 p(8) 0.959936 0.426269E-01 0.876387 1.04348
19 18 p(9) 0.564533 0.635550E-01 0.439965 0.689100
20 19 p(10) 0.276491 0.520655E-01 0.174443 0.378540
21 20 p(11) 0.162156 0.494118E-01 0.653090E-01 0.259003
22 21 LAM(2) 1.86157 0.309685 1.25459 2.46856
23 22 LAM(3) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
24 22 LAM(4) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
25 22 LAM(5) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
26 22 LAM(6) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
27 22 LAM(7) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
28 22 LAM(8) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
29 22 LAM(9) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
30 22 LAM(10) 1.02682 0.340239E-01 0.960129 1.09350
31 10 LAM(11) 1.39821 0.299505 0.811183 1.98524
Cohort Cell Observed Expected Chi-square Note
------ ---- -------- -------- ---------- -------------
1 1 16 16.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 2 8 13.570 2.287 0 < P < 1
1 3 5 2.626 2.145 0 < P < 1
1 4 13 14.962 0.257 0 < P < 1
1 5 1 1.627 0.242 0 < P < 1
1 6 1 3.212 1.524 0 < P < 1
1 7 1 0.622 0.230 0 < P < 1
1 8 37 25.500 5.187 0 < P < 1
1 9 2 1.431 0.226 0 < P < 1
1 10 2 2.826 0.241 0 < P < 1
1 11 17 17.064 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 12 1 1.855 0.394 0 < P < 1
1 13 8 3.663 5.133 0 < P < 1
1 14 3 0.709 7.402 0 < P < 1
1 15 18 18.092 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 16 1 0.032 29.378 0 < P < 1
1 17 1 0.380 1.009 0 < P < 1
1 18 9 13.619 1.566 0 < P < 1
1 19 1 1.509 0.172 0 < P < 1
1 20 5 9.113 1.857 0 < P < 1
1 21 3 1.957 0.556 0 < P < 1
1 22 1 0.379 1.019 0 < P < 1
1 23 31 29.773 0.051 0 < P < 1
1 24 2 1.500 0.167 0 < P < 1
1 25 1 1.004 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 26 8 14.840 3.153 0 < P < 1
1 27 1 0.312 1.517 0 < P < 1
1 28 18 11.171 4.174 0 < P < 1
1 29 1 1.238 0.046 0 < P < 1
1 30 10 7.476 0.853 0 < P < 1
1 31 2 1.605 0.097 0 < P < 1
1 32 30 27.664 0.197 0 < P < 1
1 33 18 10.790 4.819 0 < P < 1
1 34 2 5.378 2.122 0 < P < 1
1 35 4 4.048 0.001 0 < P < 1
1 36 5 2.709 1.937 0 < P < 1
1 37 1 0.113 6.996 0 < P < 1
1 38 15 23.993 3.371 0 < P < 1
1 39 1 0.656 0.180 0 < P < 1
1 40 2 0.494 4.593 0 < P < 1
1 41 1 0.330 1.356 0 < P < 1
1 42 11 11.851 0.061 0 < P < 1
1 43 1 0.029 32.156 0 < P < 1
1 44 3 4.622 0.569 0 < P < 1
1 45 1 2.304 0.738 0 < P < 1
1 46 4 1.734 2.960 0 < P < 1
1 47 1 0.249 2.262 0 < P < 1
1 48 21 16.684 1.117 0 < P < 1
1 49 5 4.436 0.072 0 < P < 1
1 50 1 2.191 0.647 0 < P < 1
1 51 2 0.855 1.535 0 < P < 1
1 52 18 18.029 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 53 2 1.617 0.091 0 < P < 1
1 54 1 0.089 9.365 0 < P < 1
1 55 1 0.022 42.931 0 < P < 1
1 56 4 4.935 0.177 0 < P < 1
1 57 1 0.368 1.087 0 < P < 1
1 58 3 0.648 8.536 0 < P < 1
1 59 2 0.253 12.078 0 < P < 1
1 60 21 21.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 61 1 0.011 91.003 0 < P < 1
1 62 1 1.376 0.103 0 < P < 1
1 63 1 0.679 0.151 0 < P < 1
1 64 1 0.014 68.014 0 < P < 1
1 65 4 4.199 0.009 0 < P < 1
1 66 1 1.116 0.012 0 < P < 1
1 67 3 0.551 10.872 0 < P < 1
1 68 19 17.164 0.196 0 < P < 1
1 69 3 1.539 1.387 0 < P < 1
1 70 1 0.148 4.914 0 < P < 1
1 71 1 0.111 7.100 0 < P < 1
1 72 4 4.698 0.104 0 < P < 1
1 73 1 1.249 0.050 0 < P < 1
1 74 0 30.387 30.387 0 < P < 1
1 Cohort df= 37 83.818 P = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------
@@ 3 130 0 51 177.912 15 83.8182 -195.868 435.735
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 51) 177.912
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 15 Pearson Chi-square = 83.818
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -195.86769 Akaike Information Criterion = 435.73539
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 163.81
PROC ESTIMATE NAME=MODA2x1 NOVAR NSIG=9 MAXFN=32000
PARM=LAM;
Number of parameters in model = 31
Number of parameters set equal = 8
Number of parameters fixed = 1
Number of parameters estimated = 22
Final function value 1733.4715 (Error Return = 130)
Number of significant digits 5
Number of function evaluations 1331
* * WARNING * * Rounding errors became dominant before parameters estimated
* * WARNING * * to NSIG digits for Model MODA2X1
* * WARNING * * Check to be sure the parameters are identifiable,
* * WARNING * * but the problem may just be ill-conditioned.
Results for model MODA2X1
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 1 phi(1) 0.907900 0.117632 0.677342 1.13846
2 2 phi(2) 0.613825 0.861506E-01 0.444970 0.782681
3 3 phi(3) 0.507561 0.750571E-01 0.360449 0.654672
4 4 phi(4) 0.590775 0.603159E-01 0.472556 0.708994
5 5 phi(5) 0.493492 0.488065E-01 0.397832 0.589153
6 6 phi(6) 0.613245 0.440031E-01 0.526999 0.699491
7 7 phi(7) 0.629858 0.446478E-01 0.542348 0.717368
8 8 phi(8) 0.769808 0.599968E-01 0.652215 0.887402
9 9 phi(9) 0.678977 0.975835E-01 0.487714 0.870241
10 -31 phi(10) 1.00000 0.000000E+00 1.00000 1.00000
11 11 p(1) 0.551584 0.103586 0.348555 0.754614
12 12 p(2) 0.528035 0.932956E-01 0.345175 0.710894
13 13 p(3) 0.447995 0.780373E-01 0.295042 0.600948
14 14 p(4) 0.637943 0.902491E-01 0.461055 0.814831
15 15 p(5) 0.778355 0.803575E-01 0.620854 0.935856
16 16 p(6) 0.975373 0.759072E-01 0.826595 1.12415
17 17 p(7) 0.881619 0.552564E-01 0.773316 0.989921
18 18 p(8) 0.959936 0.426269E-01 0.876387 1.04348
19 19 p(9) 0.564533 0.635550E-01 0.439965 0.689100
20 20 p(10) 0.276491 0.520655E-01 0.174443 0.378540
21 21 p(11) 0.162156 0.494118E-01 0.653090E-01 0.259003
22 22 LAM(2) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
23 22 LAM(3) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
24 22 LAM(4) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
25 22 LAM(5) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
26 22 LAM(6) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
27 22 LAM(7) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
28 22 LAM(8) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
29 22 LAM(9) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
30 22 LAM(10) 1.02682 0.340240E-01 0.960129 1.09350
31 10 LAM(11) 1.39821 0.299505 0.811183 1.98524
Cohort Cell Observed Expected Chi-square Note
------ ---- -------- -------- ---------- -------------
1 1 16 16.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 2 8 13.570 2.287 0 < P < 1
1 3 5 2.626 2.145 0 < P < 1
1 4 13 14.962 0.257 0 < P < 1
1 5 1 1.627 0.242 0 < P < 1
1 6 1 3.212 1.524 0 < P < 1
1 7 1 0.622 0.230 0 < P < 1
1 8 37 25.500 5.187 0 < P < 1
1 9 2 1.431 0.226 0 < P < 1
1 10 2 2.826 0.241 0 < P < 1
1 11 17 17.064 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 12 1 1.855 0.394 0 < P < 1
1 13 8 3.663 5.133 0 < P < 1
1 14 3 0.709 7.402 0 < P < 1
1 15 18 18.092 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 16 1 0.032 29.378 0 < P < 1
1 17 1 0.380 1.009 0 < P < 1
1 18 9 13.619 1.566 0 < P < 1
1 19 1 1.509 0.172 0 < P < 1
1 20 5 9.113 1.857 0 < P < 1
1 21 3 1.957 0.556 0 < P < 1
1 22 1 0.379 1.019 0 < P < 1
1 23 31 29.773 0.051 0 < P < 1
1 24 2 1.500 0.167 0 < P < 1
1 25 1 1.004 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 26 8 14.840 3.153 0 < P < 1
1 27 1 0.312 1.517 0 < P < 1
1 28 18 11.171 4.174 0 < P < 1
1 29 1 1.238 0.046 0 < P < 1
1 30 10 7.476 0.853 0 < P < 1
1 31 2 1.605 0.097 0 < P < 1
1 32 30 27.664 0.197 0 < P < 1
1 33 18 10.790 4.819 0 < P < 1
1 34 2 5.378 2.122 0 < P < 1
1 35 4 4.048 0.001 0 < P < 1
1 36 5 2.709 1.937 0 < P < 1
1 37 1 0.113 6.996 0 < P < 1
1 38 15 23.993 3.371 0 < P < 1
1 39 1 0.656 0.180 0 < P < 1
1 40 2 0.494 4.593 0 < P < 1
1 41 1 0.330 1.356 0 < P < 1
1 42 11 11.851 0.061 0 < P < 1
1 43 1 0.029 32.156 0 < P < 1
1 44 3 4.622 0.569 0 < P < 1
1 45 1 2.304 0.738 0 < P < 1
1 46 4 1.734 2.960 0 < P < 1
1 47 1 0.249 2.262 0 < P < 1
1 48 21 16.684 1.117 0 < P < 1
1 49 5 4.436 0.072 0 < P < 1
1 50 1 2.191 0.647 0 < P < 1
1 51 2 0.855 1.535 0 < P < 1
1 52 18 18.029 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 53 2 1.617 0.091 0 < P < 1
1 54 1 0.089 9.365 0 < P < 1
1 55 1 0.022 42.931 0 < P < 1
1 56 4 4.935 0.177 0 < P < 1
1 57 1 0.368 1.087 0 < P < 1
1 58 3 0.648 8.536 0 < P < 1
1 59 2 0.253 12.078 0 < P < 1
1 60 21 21.000 0.000 0 < P < 1
1 61 1 0.011 91.003 0 < P < 1
1 62 1 1.376 0.103 0 < P < 1
1 63 1 0.679 0.151 0 < P < 1
1 64 1 0.014 68.014 0 < P < 1
1 65 4 4.199 0.009 0 < P < 1
1 66 1 1.116 0.012 0 < P < 1
1 67 3 0.551 10.872 0 < P < 1
1 68 19 17.164 0.196 0 < P < 1
1 69 3 1.539 1.387 0 < P < 1
1 70 1 0.148 4.914 0 < P < 1
1 71 1 0.111 7.100 0 < P < 1
1 72 4 4.698 0.104 0 < P < 1
1 73 1 1.249 0.050 0 < P < 1
1 74 0 30.387 30.387 0 < P < 1
1 Cohort df= 37 83.818 P = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------
@@ 4 130 0 51 177.912 15 83.8182 -195.868 435.735
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 51) 177.912
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 15 Pearson Chi-square = 83.818
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -195.86769 Akaike Information Criterion = 435.73539
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 197.93
proc test;
Modified AIC calculations: (see "Model Selection and Inference:
A Practical Information Theoretic Approach" by K. P. Burnham
and David R. Anderson, 1998)
Most General Model:MODA1
n= 451 c= 3.152631893541994
Model K AIC AICc QAIC QAICc
1 29 410.539 414.672 169.824 173.957
2 29 410.539 414.672 169.824 173.957
3 22 435.735 438.100 168.257 170.621
4 22 435.735 438.100 168.257 170.621
Log-
Submodel likelihood NDF AIC G-O-F AICC QAIC QAICC
--------- ---------- --- --------- ------ ------- ------- -------
3 MODA2X -195.9 51 435.74 0.0000 438.1 168.3 170.6
4 MODA2X1 -195.9 51 435.74 0.0000 438.1 168.3 170.6
1 MODA1 -176.3 44 410.54 0.0000 414.7 169.8 174.0
2 MODA2 -176.3 44 410.54 0.0000 414.7 169.8 174.0
Likelihood Ratio Tests Between Models
General Reduced Degrees Pr(Larger
Submodel Submodel Chi-square Freedom Chi-square)
---------- ---------- ---------- ------- -----------
MODA1 MODA2X 39.196 7 0.0000
MODA2 MODA2X 39.196 7 0.0000
MODA1 MODA2X1 39.196 7 0.0000
MODA2 MODA2X1 39.196 7 0.0000
* * WARNING * * Sequence of models reinitialized to zero.
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.00
proc stop;
CPU time in minutes for this job was 11.05
E X E C U T I O N S U C C E S S F U L