Parameter Estimation for Animal Populations and Communities

 

 

Workshop Outline

 

                              [background pdf’s appear in square brackets]

Timing

8 am – 4:30 pm with 15-minute morning and afternoon breaks and a 1-hour lunch break.

 

Day 1 (May 21)

1. Introduction

1.1  Introduction to course (organizers + JDN) (0.75 hr)

1.2  Overview of population ecology (JDN) (0.25 hr)

1.3  Estimation: why bother? (JDN) (1 hr)     [1.3a] [1.3b]

BREAK

2. Statistical inference (I)

   2.1 Statistical distributions (LLB) (0.5 hr)

   2.2 Estimation: methods, properties (bias, precision, accuracy), CI’s (LLB) (1 hr)

   2.3 Hypothesis testing (LLB) (0.5 hr)

LUNCH

2.4 Model selection, Bayesian updating (JDN) (0.5 hr)

2. Statistical inference (II)

   2.5 Survey sampling; design features (LLB) (1 hr)

BREAK          

3. Abundance estimation (I): observations

3.1 Overview (JDN) (0.5 hr)

3.2 Observation based methods  (JDN) (1.0 hr) [3.2a][3.2b][3.2c][3.2d]

            Marked subpopulation

            Temporal removal modeling

            Sighting probability modeling

            Multiple independent observers

            Multiple dependent observers

            Distance sampling

            Replicate counts

 

Day 2 (May 22)

Day 1 recap (LLB, JEH, JDN) (0.5 hr)

   3.3 Multiple observer exercise with DOBSERV (JEH) (0.75 hr)                    

3. Abundance estimation cont. (II): captures (closed CR models)  

3.4 2-sample model (JDN) (0.5 hr)

BREAK

   3.5 2-sample model exercises (MARK) (JEH) (1.0 hr)

   3.6 K-sample closed models (JDN) (0.75 hr)

LUNCH

   3.7 K-sample closed model exercises, CAPTURE, MARK (JEH) (1.25 hr) [3.7a]

   3.8 Density estimation with closed CR models (Nichols) (0.5 hr)

            Ad hoc boundary strip approach

            Nested grids

            Gradient designs (e.g., trapping webs)

 BREAK

    3.9 Other capture-based methods (JDN; 0.25 hr)

            Removal methods

            Change-in-ratio methods

  4. Vital rate estimation (survival, reproduction, movement)  

     4.1 Introduction, relevance of detection probability (JDN) (0.25 hr)

  4.2 All marked animals detected (JDN) (1 hr)

            Binomial survival model

            Nest success

            Radiotelemetry data

 

Day 3 (May 23)

Day 2 recap ((LLB, JEH, JDN) (0.5 hr)

    4.3 Computer exercises (MARK) (JEH) (1 hr)

    4.4 Tag recovery models (JDN) (1 hr)   [4.4]

BREAK   

    4.5 Open single-age population CR models (survival) (JDN) (1.5 hr) [4.5]

            Data structure

            Modeling

            Time-specific covariates

            Multiple groups

            Capture history effects

            Individual covariates

            Abundance and recruitment

LUNCH

     4.6 Program MARK

            PIMs and design matrices (JEH) (0.75 hr)

            Exercises: Single-age models, band recovery models (JEH) (1 hr)

BREAK

     4.8 Multiple-age models (JDN) (0.5 hr)  [4.8]

     4.9 Multiple-age models exercise (JEH) (0.75 hr)

 

Day 4 (May 24)

Day 3 recap ((LLB, JEH, JDN) (0.5 hr)

     4.10 Multistate models (LLB) (0.75 hr)  [4.10a] [4.10b] [4.10c]

     4.11 Multistate models; exercises (JEH) (1 hr)                                

BREAK

     4.12 Pollock’s robust design (LLB) (0.75 hr) [4.12] [4.12b]

     4.13 Robust design exercise (JEH) (0.75 hr)

LUNCH

     4.14 Estimation of λ and components of λ (JDN) (0.5 hr) [4.14]

5. Occupancy modeling

     5.1 Single-season, single species occupancy (Nichols) (0.75 hr)  [5.1] [5.1b]

                        Data structure and designs

                        Modeling

 BREAK

      5.2 Computer exercise (PRESENCE) (JEH) (1 hr)

      5.3 Multiple-season occupancy dynamics (JDN) (1 hr) [5.3]

                        Data structure

                        Modeling

 

Day 5 (May 25)

Day 4 recap ((LLB, JEH, JDN) (0.5 hr)

     5.4 Occupancy multi-season exercises with PRESENCE (JEH) (1hr)

     5.5 Multi-season occupancy modeling example: Amazonian birds (JDN) (0.75 hr) [5.5a][5.5b]

BREAK    

     5.6 Occupancy study design (LLB) (0.75)   [5.6] [5.6b]

     5.7 GENPRES software for study design (JEH) (0.75 hr)

LUNCH

     5.8 Occupancy; multiple species, states, detection devices (JDN) (0.75 hr)       [5.8]

6  Species richness and community dynamics

     6.1 Intro to species richness estimation (JDN) (0.75 hr)        [6.1]

BREAK

  6.2 Community dynamics; multiple seasons (JDN) (0.75 hr) [6.2]

     6.3 SPECRICH and COMDYN software (JEH) (0.75 hr)    

7 Overall Recap (LLB, JEH, JDN)

 

 

Lecturers:

Larissa L. Bailey (LLB) lbailey@usgs.gov

James E. Hines (JEH)  jhines@usgs.gov

James D. Nichols (JDN)  jnichols@usgs.gov

 

 

Sotfware available at:

 

http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/software

 

Programs: DOBSERV, CAPTURE, MARK, PRESENCE, GENPRES, COMDYN