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Intermediate-level workshop
Bayesian integrated population modeling (IPM)
using BUGS and JAGS
Instructors:
- Michael Schaub & Marc Kéry, Swiss Ornithological Institute,
- Sarah J. Converse, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Date: 1-5 August 2016
Venue: USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel/Maryland, USA
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and WinBUGS, JAGS or OpenBUGS
Registration: USD$ 600 (normal rate), USD$ 300 (student rate)
Integrated population models (IPMs) represent the powerful combination, in a single Leslie-type of model,
of different data sources that are informative about the dynamics of an animal population (Besbeas et al.
2002; Schaub et al. 2007). Typical IPMs combine one or more time-series of counts with another data set
that is directly informative about survival probabilities, such as ring-recovery or capture-recapture.
However, many other sources of demographic information may be envisioned instead or in addition,
including age-at-death data, occupancy or replicated point count data. Currently, for non-statisticians the
only practical manner to develop and fit an IPM is using BUGS software (WinBUGS, OpenBUGS, JAGS).
This course is a practical and hands-on introduction to developing and fitting integrated population
models using BUGS software. It is based on the successful book by Kéry & Schaub,
Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS
(Academic Press, 2012), which will be handed out as part of the course.
Beyond IPMs, the course also provides an in-depth introduction for ecologists and wildlife
managers to a very wide variety of models fit using BUGS software and as documented in the BPA book.
Contents include the following topics:
Basic introduction:
- Hierarchical models as an overarching theme of population modeling, including IPMs
- Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models
- Introduction to BUGS software in the context of generalised linear models (GLM) and traditional
random-effects models
Ingredients of Integrated Population Models:
- State-space models
- Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival probabilities
- Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition probabilities
Integrated Population Models (IPMs)
- Introduction to matrix population models and their analysis with BUGS
- Theory of integrated population models
- Various case studies which differ in complexity and in the data types that are combined
In this intermediate-level workshop about 3/4 of the time are spent on lecturing and 1/4 on solving
exercises. No previous experience with BUGS software, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However,
a good
working knowledge of modern regression methods (ANOVA, ANCOVA, GLMs) and of program R is
required.
Moreover, a basic understanding of capture-recapture
and/or occupancy models is desirable.
Send your application to Michael Schaub (
michael.schaub@vogelwarte.ch),
with CC to Marc Kéry
(marc.kery@vogelwarte.ch);
describing your background and knowledge in statistical modeling, R and
WinBUGS/OpenBUGS/JAGS and capture-recapture, by 31 March 2016 at the latest. Workshop invitations
will be sent out immediately afterwards.